social media

EDT: Social Media Results Contradict Latest Polls

Press Release

Election Digital Trends releases social media data on tight House races using technology that gives an edge to professionals tracking electoral content.

 

  • Social media analytics show Republicans could recover 7 House seats and keep a slim majority in the Senate. Congress would remain split. 
  • Global software house Opentrends, Inc. has developed a digital technological alternative to ratings, polling or campaign spending analysis through its free portal ELECTIONDIGITALTRENDS.
  • The data is a new way to look at election data, addressing poll shortcomings by providing a clear and evolving picture of a candidate’s popularity and overall enthusiasm for a particular ticket.

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

PALO ALTO, Calif. – October 19, 2020 – International digital transformation firm Opentrends, Inc. launched the free portal www.ElectionDigitalTrends.com (EDT) in late September with White House race data. Next releasing data on the Senate’s most contested races earlier this month and now social media analytics on 28 hot House races, the portal provides a more complete digital activity picture on this election. 

The House races were selected based on polling data published by Real Clear Politics (RCP). Based on the premise that the candidate with the highest number of followers has a much higher chance of winning, EDT’s data indicates that Republicans could flip 9 seats and Democrats 5. Republicans would recover 7 seats that were already Republican in 2016. This differs from the RCP’s prediction model where Democrats stand to keep these seats gained in 2018, even those that were Republican in 2016. In either scenario, Democrats keep their House majority, since the 28 races analyzed by EDT include most of the toss-ups. The following table reflects the 15 of the 28 races analyzed by EDT that show an alternative outlook to the RCP polling model.

15 races analyzed by EDT

EDT’s data on the Senate also indicates a party shift in seats where Democrats may take 3 Republican seats belonging to AZ, CO and GA1; while Republicans may flip MI. The RCP data disagrees with GA1 and MI. 

figure 1 EDT

The most popular candidate on social media has consistently won the race for the White House since 2008, regardless of polling, ratings, or spending data indicators. In this election cycle, recent data gathered reveals a close contest in terms of daily growth and engagement. And while President Donald Trump remains the most popular candidate on Twitter, he cements his success with Facebook more than any other platform. Alternately, Democrats have been leading for much of the election in daily follower growth, engagement and effectiveness ratios (calculated by dividing the number of interactions per number of posts), indicating that there’s a lot more digital enthusiasm for the Democratic White House ticket.

figure 2 EDT

About Election Digital Trends

ElectionDigitalTrends is the only portal that tracks candidates’ social media measurements in this election. It tracks in a technologically advanced way daily follower growth and engagement activity on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram platforms for the White House race. Additionally, it tracks weekly follower growth for 10 heavily contested Senate races and follower growth for 28 hot House races every 10 days. Because the House races are so small, tracking excludes Instagram. 

The portal data addresses a shortcoming in using traditional ratings patterns, polling and campaign spending measurements and provides an edge to professionals tracking electoral content. Considering that the Covid pandemic may make this election one of the most unusual, EDT feels digital data is going to be more relevant than in any other cycle. 

ElectionDigitalTrends is an essential tool considering that 171 million US adults devote considerable time daily to social media while interacting with friends, family, brands, organizations, celebrities, and political leaders.“If measured well, social media data provides a very good insight on what people actually like and care about,” says Opentrends, Inc. CEO Mr. Xavier Buscalla. 

When considering how unreliable the polls conducted over the last 2 election cycles have been, Opentrends worked to develop a portal to provide more relevant digital data when compared to traditional ratings. “We already do it for our clients, so we thought we had to do it for the public on something as important as an election” says Opentrends, Inc. Chief Strategy Officer  Anselm Bossacoma, underlining Opentrends civic commitment. 

Updated daily, ElectionDigitalTrends launched on September 29, just ahead of the first Presidential Election debate, displaying retroactive data as far back as September 7. 

 

 

About Opentrends

Opentrends, Inc. is an international digital transformation firm with clients such as Sony, Fujitsu, BBVA, Grifols, Mitsubishi Electric, Volkswagen, Honda, and other Fortune 500 companies. Located in Palo Alto, Barcelona, Madrid, and Kerala, Opentrends provides software development, as well as integration, implementation, and adoption of advanced technological solutions. 

 

Press contact

Please contact Tatiana Gely, tgely@opentrends.net for more information.